Working Papers

The Effect of Three Strikes Laws on Violent Crime Rates Job Market Paper (download)

Three strikes laws mandate sharply increased sentences for criminals that commit a specific number of felonies. I analyze the effect of these laws on violent crime rates using municipal-level data from the FBI. Specifically, I compare violent crime rates of border municipalities in states with differing treatment statuses using a difference-in-differences specification with a sample matched on pre-treatment outcomes. I find that three strikes laws do not reduce violent crime rates. I rule out reductions in violent crime rates greater than 1.3%, and I reject the hypothesis that three strikes laws reduce violent crime rates at the 5% significance level.

High-order frequentist coverage probability of Bayesian bootstrap credible intervals for quantiles (download)

I analyze credible intervals for quantiles constructed using Bayesian bootstrap techniques and show that credible intervals constructed using the “continuity-corrected” Bayesian bootstrap (Banks, 1988) have frequentist coverage probability error of only O(n−1). In addition, I show that these “continuity-corrected” Bayesian bootstrap credible intervals achieve the same frequentist coverage probability as the frequentist confidence intervals of Goldman and Kaplan (2017a), up to some error term of magnitude O(n−1). Furthermore, I demonstrate that credible intervals constructed using the “continuity-corrected” Bayesian bootstrap have less frequentist coverage probability error than those constructed using the Bayesian bootstrap (Rubin, 1981).

Work in Progress

The Effect of Demand-Side-Targeting Prostitution Laws on Reported Rape Offenses

The Effect of Drug Decriminalization on Crime: A Synthetic Control Analysis of Portugal